Campaign Intelligence

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Votes needed to win
+1,423
1,977 (2025) → 3,400 target (2027) | Victory path includes buffer
2025 Result
5th / 8
1,977 votes (10.99%)
R-Leaning Dropoffs
6,678
Confirmed + Likely + Lean R who skipped 2025
2025 Turnout
44.3%
vs 34.2% in 2023 — rising
Holmes Proved It
+1,208
4th (2023) → 1st (2025) in one cycle
Confirmed R
1,656
Score 70+ (502 dropoffs)
Likely R
6,744
Score 40-69 (3,201 dropoffs)
Lean R
6,473
Score 15-39 (2,975 dropoffs)
Excluded "Rs"
232
Registered R, confirmed D donors
New Since Nov 2024
1,191
471 R, 437 U, 266 D

How We Get to 3,400 Votes

SourceVotesRunning Total

Precinct Battleground — Where to Win

PrecinctYour %RankGap TurnoutNon-VotersTrump %Tier

Three-Tier Precinct Strategy

TIER 1 — DEFEND & GROW (M3, M2, M7, M16)
Your 4 best precincts — but only 30-39% turnout. Push to 55% = +400 votes. You already placed 3rd in M3. Flip M2/M7/M16 from 4th to 3rd.
TIER 2 — PERSUADE (M14, M11, M4, M10, M6, M5)
6 precincts at 10.7-11.8% with 57-69% turnout. Door-knock and persuade. 1,965 non-voters here. Move from 5th to 4th in each = +450 votes.
TIER 3 — MOBILIZE (M12, M1, M8, M18)
4 precincts at 9-22% turnout with 2,324 non-voters. M12 alone: 832 non-voters at 22% turnout, Trump-leaning 55%. Registration drives + targeted outreach = +250 votes.

Mobilization Gap: Voted Presidential, Skipped City Council

Per Capita Spending vs Peers

GF Reserve
4.5%
GFOA minimum: 16.7%
Property Tax vs Peers
3-4x
$355/capita vs ~$100 (vs Lewiston, Twin Falls, CdA)
MURA Cash Idle
$4.59M
6th & Jackson: 16 yrs vacant
FY2026 Budget
$139.5M
+4.8% from FY2025