Every time they talk about your church, you talk about their budget.
Make them look unserious. Make yourself look like the only adult in the room.
The Mission
Win one of three Moscow City Council seats in November 2027. Target seats: Blankenship, Davis, Kelly. Minimum votes needed: ~3,400. Net gain required:+1,423 from 2025 base of 1,977.
Victory Path Breakdown
Source
Projected Votes
Running Total
The Problem We're Solving
Cycle
Progressive Trio
Conservative Best
Gap
2019
~4,300 each
~1,650 each
~2,650
2021
3,200-3,700
1,000-1,700
~2,000
2025
3,400-3,500
1,977 (Slagboom)
~1,400
The problem isn't the conservative count — it's what drives the progressive count up. The Christ Church discourse is a fear-based turnout weapon that transforms city elections into culture war referendums.
Target Candidate Profiles
Name
2023 Votes
%
MURA Board?
Notes
Key insight: Davis and Kelly both sit on the MURA board. MURA accountability is a direct contrast point. Blankenship may vacate for State Senate — watch for appointment dynamics.
Lessons from 2025
What worked: Strong precinct performance in M3 (placed 3rd). Good name recognition in conservative-leaning precincts.
What didn't: Not enough door-knocking. Low visibility in high-turnout progressive precincts (M15, M9, M5). Late entry and limited door presence in progressive precincts limited crossover appeal.
Key lesson: Holmes gained 1,208 votes between 2023 and 2025. The swing is achievable. But it requires 18 months of ground game, not 8 weeks.
Voter Targeting System — Data-Driven Mobilization
All 16,127 Moscow voters scored 0–100 on Republican confirmation, assigned to psychographic segments, and mapped to optimal contact channels.
Confirmed R
1,656
Score 70+ — canvass first
Likely R
6,744
Score 40-69 — issue messaging
Lean R
6,473
Score 15-39 — mailer + digital
Excluded "Rs"
232
Registered R, FEC-confirmed D donors
Segment
Voters
Primary Channel
Core Message
Taxed Homeowner
4,675
Door knock + Mailer + Nextdoor
Property tax +40.6%, budget audit pledge
Young Professional
3,774
Facebook + Instagram
Council controls your water bill, 7,000 no-shows
Retiree
1,311
Door knock + Mailer
Council should reflect your values, budget vs pension
Rural-Edge
1,206
Mailer + Facebook
Property decisions, annexation/zoning
Behavioral-R Unaffiliated
529
Facebook + Mailer
No party required, fiscal conservative
Low-Information
2,760
Mailer + Facebook
City elections exist, early voting info
Operational Contact Lists (Generated)
Door Knock List
3,313
Score 40+ dropoff voters, sorted by precinct + street
Mailer Households
4,716
Deduplicated, 3-phase message sequence
Phone/Text Bank
1,943
Score 30+ with phone on file
6 Facebook Custom Audience files ready for upload — one per psychographic segment. Expected match rate: 40–60%. Combined with 6,316 geocoded voters for map-based canvassing routes.
Precinct Trend Analysis (2016–2024)
5-cycle R two-party share trend. Window is narrowing — only M2 is gaining ground.
The One Sentence
"Moscow families pay 2-3x what comparable Idaho cities pay, and nobody at City Hall can tell you why."
Every door. Every ad. Every forum. This is the message.
Message Architecture
Content
Populist Economic
"They're spending YOUR money and nobody's watching"
Tone
Fix the Basics
Pragmatic governance, not ideology
Edge
MURA Only
Anti-establishment reserved for MURA specifically
Three Proof Points
Always in this order. Each one is a pivot destination from any church question.
1. The Budget Gap — $355/capita vs ~$100▼
The Line
"Moscow spends more per resident than cities three to six times our size. I want to know why. I think you do too."
The number: $355/capita property tax vs ~$100 in comparable cities. 3-4x higher. Per-capita spending: $4,682 (Census pop. 25,435) vs Lewiston's $3,152 and Twin Falls' $1,813.
Why it works: Every Moscow resident pays taxes. This isn't partisan.
2. The MURA Black Box — $4.59M idle▼
The Line
"There's a quasi-governmental agency in Moscow sitting on over $4.5 million of public money with almost no public accountability. Taxpayers deserve to know what's happening with their money."
The number: $4.59M in cash, $870K budgeted for development with $0 spent, 6th & Jackson vacant for 16 years.
Why it works: Government transparency is universally popular. Nobody defends a slush fund.
"Before you use a single gallon of water, Moscow households pay $112 a month. Rates are up 12% while reserves sit at zero. We're paying more every year and our infrastructure isn't getting better."
The number: $112/month fixed utility charges. Stormwater up 12%, sanitation up 12%. Water, sewer, and street reserves all at $0.
Why it works: Everyone turns on the same tap. Everyone drives the same roads.
Core Message Framework
AFFORDABILITY
Moscow families pay 2–2.5x what comparable Idaho cities charge in combined taxes and utilities. A $400K home pays $1,443/yr — 3–4x Lewiston or Coeur d'Alene.
ACCOUNTABILITY
16 years of a vacant MURA property, a dual-role administrator, a sole-source auditor for 9 years, and $870K budgeted but $0 spent. The public deserves answers.
FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY
$722K in flexible reserves covers 16 days. Water, sewer, street reserves: all $0. Stormwater +12%, sanitation +12%. We need a plan, not more rate increases.
Top 5 Talking Points
AFFORDABILITY
Moscow's property tax per capita is 3–4x higher than Lewiston, Twin Falls, or Coeur d'Alene ($355/capita vs ~$100). Combined with utility costs, Moscow families pay 2–2.5x what comparable cities charge.
Source: City of Moscow FY2026 Adopted Budget; Peer city data from respective municipal budgets/CAFRs; 2020 Census population
RESERVES
The city's flexible reserve — $722,000 — covers just 16 days of operations. The national standard says 61 days. Water, sewer, and street fund reserves are all at zero.
Source: FY2024 ACFR, FY2026 Budget
MURA
MURA sits on $4.59 million in cash while the Sixth & Jackson property has been vacant for 16 years through three failed development attempts. Residents deserve to know why.
Source: MURA FY2025 Audit
RATES
Stormwater rates increased 12.33% and sanitation 11.97% — more than 4x the rate of inflation. Before you use a single gallon, Moscow households pay $112/month in fixed utility charges.
Source: FY2026 Fee Schedule
TRANSFERS
$2.68 million was transferred out of the General Fund beyond what was budgeted — with no documented council amendment. Capital Projects ended FY2024 with $14.1M vs. $0 budgeted.
Source: FY2024 ACFR pp.68, 81, 88
Platform Identity
Fiscally conservative but Moscow-adapted. Accountability on waste. YES to quality-of-life spending (parks, beauty, infrastructure). Not rigid ideology — principled pragmatism. "Spend wisely on things that matter. Stop wasting money on things that don't."
What NOT to Say
Do NOT claim “reserves are depleted at 4.5%” without specifying this is the UNASSIGNED balance. Total GF balance ($6.79M) technically exceeds GFOA minimum.
Do NOT blame the GF decline entirely on mismanagement. Bradbury v. Lewiston (2023) — street impact fees ruled illegal — created a 12% GF revenue hole.
Do NOT say Moscow's high per-capita spending is “administrative bloat.” It's driven by the airport, advanced water treatment, and UI partnership.
Do NOT say Moscow's admin overhead is excessive — it's 8–12% of GF, within normal range.
ADR Framework: Acknowledge, Distinguish, Redirect
One prepared response for every context. Use once per venue, then redirect only.
Acknowledge
"I'm a Christian. I attend All Souls. I have friends across many churches in Moscow, including Christ Church."
Distinguish
"I'm not a spokesman for any church. I'm running because Moscow families are paying 2-3x what comparable cities charge."
Redirect
"My opponent would rather talk about church affiliations than explain the $2.68M transfer anomaly."
The Pivot Sentence
"I'm happy to talk about that, but first — can you tell me why your water bill went up 12% while infrastructure reserves sit at zero? Because that's what I'm running on."
Scenario Decision Tree
Select the situation you're in to see the right response.
Moderator asks about Christ Church influence
"You know, I find it interesting that in a city that spends $4,682 per resident — the thing some folks want to talk about is which church I go to on Sunday. I got into this race because I looked at Moscow's budget and couldn't believe the numbers. I think the people in this room care a lot more about where their tax dollars are going than where I sit for an hour on Sunday morning."
Follow-up: "So you won't address the question?"
"I just did. I go to church. So does most of Moscow. Now — would you like to talk about the $5 million sitting in MURA with almost no public oversight, or should we keep talking about Sunday morning?"
Key: Light tone. Slight smile. You're not angry. You're a little amused that this is the best they've got.
Voter: "Are you one of those Kirkers?"
"Ha — I'm a guy who's been digging through Moscow's city budget for the past year and I can't believe what I'm finding. Have you looked at your water bill recently? That's what got me into this race. Can I leave you this card with my platform?"
Key: Laugh it off warmly. Don't engage the premise. Hand them the policy card. Move on.
Reporter: "Liberty PAC supported you. How do you respond to concerns about Christ Church ties?"
"I can't control who sends a mailer any more than my opponents can control who likes their Facebook posts. What I can control is my platform. I've spent the last year looking at Moscow's municipal finances — the per-capita spending, the MURA fund, the infrastructure gap — and that's what I'm running on. I think your readers would find those numbers a lot more interesting than church gossip."
Reporter pressing: "But specifically, are you affiliated with Christ Church?"
"I'm affiliated with Moscow. That's whose interests I'm running to represent. I'd really love to talk about the budget if you're interested — I've got numbers that would make a great story."
Key: Never say the words "Christ Church" yourself if you can avoid it. Redirect to the story you want them to write.
Someone posts: "Slagboom is a Kirk puppet"
Your response: Nothing. Zero engagement. Do not reply, do not quote-tweet, do not subtweet.
Instead, post the same day: A policy-focused post about city spending, infrastructure, or MURA. Something with a specific number. Something shareable.
What the audience sees: Their feed is about you. Your feed is about Moscow. The contrast does the work.
If a surrogate wants to respond
"Interesting that they'd rather talk about churches than the city budget. John's been talking about Moscow's $4,682 per-capita spending for months. Maybe his opponents should try that."
Opponent: "I think voters deserve to know where he stands on Doug Wilson's views."
"I appreciate that my opponent wants to talk about churches. I'd rather talk about why Moscow spends more per capita than cities three times our size. I'd rather talk about why MURA budgeted $870,000 for development participation last year and spent zero. I'd rather talk about what's happening with our water infrastructure. If my opponent would like to join me in talking about those things, I think this audience would appreciate it. If not — well, I think that tells you something too."
Key: The opponent just burned their forum time on church drama while you talked about the budget. You win that exchange every time.
Stance: Neither Embrace Nor Disavow. Do not publicly ask any PAC not to spend on your behalf. That draws attention, looks defensive, and creates a story where none needs to exist.
If Liberty PAC makes independent expenditures
"Independent expenditures are independent — the law says I can't coordinate with any PAC and I don't. I'm running my own campaign on my own platform. Judge me by what I say and what I do, not by what someone else mails."
If pressed further
"If someone wants to send a mailer about me, that's their right under the law. I can't stop it and I didn't ask for it. What I can tell you is every dollar my campaign spends goes into talking about Moscow's budget, Moscow's infrastructure, and Moscow's future. That's what I control, and that's what I'm focused on."
Escalation Protocol
The Mirror handles 95% of situations. This flowchart shows when and how to escalate.
Church topic surfaces
Deploy ADR (once per venue)
Follow-up questions?
No
Stay on policy. Done.
Yes
Redirect only. No new ADR.
Attacks escalating for weeks?
ALL 3 TRUE? 1. Label is dominant association 2. Mirror deployed consistently 3. Natural venue exists
Deploy Houston Speech (ONCE)
"I've addressed that." Back to budget.
Houston Speech — Break Glass Only
Trigger conditions — ALL THREE must be true before deploying:
The label has become your dominant public association
The Mirror has been deployed consistently for weeks and attacks have escalated
A natural venue exists (editorial board, major forum, interview)
The Houston Speech — Deliver Once, Then Never Again
"I want to address something directly, and then I'd like to move on to what actually matters to this city.
Some people in this race want to make it about churches. I go to church on Sunday — so does most of Moscow. My faith is important to me, and I'm not going to apologize for it. But I'm not running to represent any church. I'm running because Moscow's city government spends more per resident than cities three times our size, and I think the people who pay those bills deserve someone on the council who's actually looked at the numbers.
I'd rather talk about the city budget. I'd rather talk about infrastructure. I'd rather talk about why there's $5 million in a quasi-governmental fund with minimal public oversight. Those are the things that affect every single person in Moscow, regardless of where they go — or don't go — on Sunday morning.
So that's what my campaign is about. And I hope my opponents will join me in talking about those things instead of playing church politics."
After: Any further church questions get: "I've addressed that. I'd like to talk about [pillar]." No elaboration. Done. Back to the budget.
Rules of Engagement
DO
State what you ARE, then move
Stay bemused, not angry
Pivot to a specific dollar amount
Let the contrast do the work
Keep 100% policy in all materials
DON'T
Never say "I'm not affiliated with Christ Church"
Never attack Doug Wilson or Christ Church
Never engage church attacks on social media
Never get angry — anger validates the attack
Never use vague pivots — use numbers
Quick Reference Card
Memorize these numbers. They're your ammunition at every door.
Key Stats to Know
Property tax per capita$355 (vs ~$100 peers)
Per-capita spending$4,682 (vs $3,152 Lewiston)
Monthly fixed utility charges$112 before usage
Stormwater / sanitation increase12% each
MURA idle cash$4.59M
6th & Jackson vacancy16 years
Infrastructure reserves$0 (water, sewer, streets)
GF reserve4.5% (GFOA min: 16.7%)
Doorstep Decision Tree
Knock. Introduce yourself.
Voter interested?
Yes / Curious
Share the $4,682 stat. Offer platform card.
Asks about church?
No
Thank them. Log as Lean/Supporter. Move on.
Yes
Redirect script. Leave card. Move on.
No / Hostile
"Thank you for your time." Log as Oppose. Move on.
Canvassing Scripts
Opening Script (Volunteer)
"Hi, I'm volunteering for John Slagboom's campaign for Moscow City Council. John's been doing a deep dive into Moscow's city budget and found some things he thinks residents should know about — like the fact that Moscow spends $4,682 per resident (2020 Census pop. 25,435), and property taxes are 3-4x what comparable Idaho cities charge. Would you like to hear more about his platform?"
If voter brings up Christ Church
"John's focused on city spending and transparency — that's what got him in the race. I can leave you this card with his platform. Thanks for your time!"
Training rule: Do not argue about churches. Do not defend. Do not explain. Pivot to policy, leave the card, move on. Every minute spent arguing about Christ Church on a doorstep is a minute you could have knocked another door.
If voter asks about specific issues (water, roads, etc.)
"Great question. Moscow's fixed utility charges are $112/month before you use a drop of water, and rates went up 12% this year while reserves sit at zero. John wants to know why we're paying more every year when the infrastructure isn't getting better."
Closing / Ask
"Election Day is November 2nd. Can John count on your vote? And if you know two friends who'd want to hear about this, please share the card."
Volunteer Ground Rules
DO
Lead with the $4,682 number
Always carry platform cards
Log every door (supporter/lean/undecided/oppose)
Be warm, friendly, brief
Ask for the vote + 2 friends
Move on quickly from hostile doors
Wear campaign T-shirt or badge
DON'T
Never argue about churches
Never defend Christ Church or any church
Never attack any candidate or group
Never make promises John hasn't made
Never spend more than 2 minutes per door
Never leave without logging the contact
Never knock after dark
Precinct Targeting Priority
PRIORITY 1: Tier 1 — Defend & Grow (M3, M2, M7, M16)
Your 4 best precincts. Low turnout (30-39%). Full saturation canvassing. These voters lean your way.
PRIORITY 2: Tier 2 — Persuade (M14, M11, M4, M10, M6, M5)
6 precincts at 10.7-11.8%. 1,965 non-voters. Door-knock with the wallet message. Move from 5th to 4th in each.
PRIORITY 3: Tier 3 — Mobilize (M12, M1, M8, M18)
Low turnout, 2,324 non-voters. Every door knocked here is a voter who meets you and thinks "he's not what I expected."
Three-Step Voter Activation
Match your message to the timeline. Different doors get different messages depending on when you knock.
Step 1: Wake-Up (6-8 wks out)
"You pay $355/year per person in property tax. Lewiston pays ~$100. Same state. Same services. Why?"
No candidate name on front. Just the question.
Step 2: Permission (3-4 wks out)
"In 2023, winners got 800-1,100 votes. Your neighborhood could decide this. 3 seats open — every vote counts 3x."
Step 3: The Ask (final 14 days)
"Vote November 2, 2027. Bring two friends."
Not "support me" — "vote and bring people."
Social Media Response Protocol
Church-related attack posted
DO NOT ENGAGE. Zero replies.
Same day: Post policy content with a number
Surrogate wants to respond?
Yes
Use approved surrogate script only
No
Silence is the response. Move on.
Content Rules
Content Ratio
100% Policy
Budget, infrastructure, MURA, council recaps
Tone
Curious + Informed
Not angry, not combative, constructive
Engagement Rule
Never Engage
Church attacks = starve the algorithm
Post Templates
Ready-to-customize posts. Click to copy, edit the details, post.
Budget Fact
Moscow spends $4,682 per resident (2020 Census pop. 25,435). Property taxes are 3-4x what Lewiston, Twin Falls, or CdA charge. Same state. Similar services.
I've been going through the city budget line by line, and the numbers don't add up. Moscow families deserve answers.
#Moscow2027 #YourMoneyYourCity
Utility Rates
Before you use a single gallon of water, Moscow households pay $112/month in fixed utility charges.
Stormwater: up 12%. Sanitation: up 12%. Infrastructure reserves: $0.
We're paying more every year and our infrastructure isn't getting better. It's time someone asked why.
#Moscow2027 #WaterBill
MURA Spotlight
Did you know there's a quasi-governmental agency in Moscow sitting on $4.59 million with almost no public oversight?
Last year they budgeted $870,000 for development and spent $0. Meanwhile, the lot at 6th & Jackson has been vacant for 16 years.
Where is the money going? #MURA #Transparency
Council Meeting Recap
Attended tonight's Moscow City Council meeting. Here's what happened:
[Insert 2-3 specific items discussed]
I've been attending every meeting for [X] months because I believe residents deserve someone who actually looks at the numbers. More updates coming.
#MoscowCityCouncil
GOTV (Final 14 Days)
In 2023, city council winners got 800-1,100 votes. Your neighborhood can decide this election.
3 seats are open. You pick 3. Every vote counts triple.
November 2, 2027. Vote. Bring two friends.
#MoscowVotes #Election2027
Surrogate Response Script
Approved response if a supporter wants to reply to church attacks
"Interesting that they'd rather talk about churches than the city budget. John's been talking about Moscow's $4,682 per-capita spending for months. Maybe his opponents should try that."
Rules for surrogates: Use this template only. Don't freelance. Don't get pulled into back-and-forth. Post once, move on.
Communications Blueprint
Campaign Website Guidelines▼
Hero: Your name, "For Moscow City Council," lead pillar stat ($4,682/capita)
Platform: Three pillars with sourced data. Links to actual city budget documents. Show your work.
About: Moscow resident, background, community involvement. Why you're running — in terms of city issues only.
No "FAQ about Christ Church." No "Addressing the rumors." The absence is the message.
Printed Materials▼
Door hanger: Front: "Slagboom for Council" + one-line platform. Back: Three pillars with key numbers.
No religious imagery. Not because you're hiding faith — because the campaign is about governance.
Earned Media Strategy▼
Pitch the story you want written. Send the Argonaut your budget analysis.
Send the Daily News your MURA findings.
Give reporters a policy story that's easier to write than the church story.
Campaign Phases
Phase 1: Foundation (Mar 2026 — Jul 2027)▼
16 months. No public campaign. Build the machine.
Research complete, dashboard live (DONE)
Acquire Latah County voter file (DONE — 16,127 voters)
Build precinct captain network (1 per Tier 1+2 precinct)
Grow email list from 82 to 300+
Identify 3-5 endorsers
Track every rate increase, budget vote, MURA action
Launch house party fundraising (target: $2,000)
Monitor Blankenship Senate race — if he wins, track appointment process
Explore slate possibilities if strong aligned candidates emerge
Phase 2: Soft Launch (Aug — Sep 2027)▼
File. Announce. Deploy the wake-up message.
File candidacy (~Aug 9-27, 2027)
Announce via email list + Facebook (serious tone)
Community forums on affordability/MURA accountability
Door hangers in Tier 1 precincts (M3, M2, M7, M16)
Facebook Phase 1 ads ($250)
Seek Daily News editorial board meeting
Begin door-knocking: 50 doors/day, 4 days/week
Digital presence: build social media following
Begin cultivating endorsements
Fundraising push: small-dollar online, local business asks (target: $3,000 cumulative)
Phase 3: Full Campaign (Oct 1 — Nov 2, 2027)▼
33 days. Permission message, then GOTV.
Weeks 1-2: Signs deployed (all 150-200, one weekend). Radio begins. Facebook shifts to permission. Door-knocking expands to Tier 2. 60 doors/day, 5 days/week.
Week 3: Facebook shifts to GOTV. Text banking begins. Endorsement ads. Volunteer door-knockers to Tier 1 for second pass.
Week 4 (Final 72 Hours):
Thursday: Text all supporters for vote plan
Friday: Knock supporter doors, max Facebook spend
Sat-Sun: Canvass remaining, "vote triplers"
Monday: Final text blast with polling locations
Election Day: 7 AM text, 3 PM chase, 5 PM final door push
Budget: $3,000 minimum (stretch: $5,000)
Item
Cost
Purpose
Door hangers / palm cards (1,000)
$200
Wake-up data point + candidate info
Yard signs (150-200)
$450
Name ID, deployed 3 weeks out
Facebook / Meta ads
$800
Three-phase: wake-up, permission, GOTV
Radio (KQQQ 2-week buy)
$500
20-25 spots, morning + afternoon drive
SMS platform (P2P texting)
$200
GOTV final 14 days
Printing (walk lists, materials)
$150
Canvassing infrastructure
Miscellaneous
$200
Signs hardware, deployment
Reserve
$500
Lean year = expect surprises
TOTAL
$3,000
Free Force Multipliers: Door-knocking (volunteer time), campaign intelligence dashboard (built), AI strategic support, 82-person email list (grow to 300+).
Critical Dates
Date
Milestone
May 19, 2026
Blankenship primary — watch result
Nov 3, 2026
Blankenship general — if wins, council seat opens
Jan 2027
If Blankenship wins, appointee fills seat
Aug 9-27, 2027
Filing window (approximate)
~Oct 13, 2027
Early voting begins
Nov 2, 2027
Election Day
Multi-Cycle Infrastructure
Assets that survive regardless of November 2027:
The Dashboard
Gets stronger each budget cycle. No other local candidate has this.
Volunteer Network
15-20 people. Redeployable for any aligned candidate.
Voter Contact Data
Every door logged. Gold for future races.
Email/SMS List
300+ contacts. Grows between cycles.
Public Record
16+ months of attending council meetings.
The Message
"2-3x comparable cities" gets stronger as rates rise.
If you lose in 2027: Thank-you + "this isn't over" within 24hrs. Keep attending meetings. Keep dashboard updated. Run again in 2029. Holmes went from 596 to 3,511 in one cycle.
If you win: Dashboard becomes your governance tool. Volunteer network becomes constituent services. Govern on exactly what you campaigned on.
DNC Autopsy — What It Means for Moscow
The DNC's 192-page post-2024 autopsy (May 2026) and Blueprint's post-election polling reveal exactly how a disengaged base gets activated. Democrats failed nationally. We apply it locally.
The core insight: Moscow conservatives face the same problem the DNC identified for Democrats in red states — they've ceded local government because they think they can't win, so they don't organize, so they lose, which confirms the belief. The cycle breaks with year-round presence, door-to-door contact, and pocketbook messaging.
Translation for Moscow: 3,000-4,000 conservative households. 15 canvassers at 20 doors/weekend covers the universe in 6-8 weeks. At 17.1% contact rate, that's 500+ real conversations. In a race decided by hundreds of votes, that IS the margin.
The "Always On" vs "Always Late" Problem
The DNC's single biggest self-identified failure: Republicans message year-round while Democrats "go dark" between cycles. 72% of all Democratic door-knock IDs were collected in the last month of the campaign — after many states had already started voting.
Moscow Progressives (Always On)
UI faculty networks active year-round
Co-op bulletin board, community listservs
Permanent organizational infrastructure
Consistent council meeting attendance
Our Answer (Build to Match)
Hearing Monitor = year-round awareness layer
Transparency site = always-on accountability
Council meeting attendance record
Voter dashboard = persistent data infrastructure
Blueprint Findings — Framing Beats Policy
Blueprint's post-election survey of 3,262 voters (Nov 2024) found framing mattered more than positions.
Why Trump's "They/Them" Ad Worked
Voters who recalled the ad74%
Trump swing voters who believed Harris supported taxpayer-funded trans surgeries for immigrants83%
Voters who actually listed trans issues as a voting motivation4% (dead last)
Said Democrats "too focused on identity politics"67%
Said Harris prioritizes "Americans like me"22%
Said Trump prioritizes "Americans like me"80%
Moscow application: The ad worked as a proxy for misaligned priorities, not because voters cared about trans policy. Same principle locally: "City Hall spent $885K on a park stage while your property taxes more than doubled since 2008." Frame the incumbents as focused on the wrong things while costs climb. Pocketbook, not culture war.
The Spending Paradox
Democrats raised $8.6 billion in 2024 federal races and lost everything. 66.3% of all candidate spending went to just 30 media vendors. The Harris campaign spent $1.04 billion on media and $150 million on voter contact.
National Spending vs Contact
Total Democratic federal receipts$8.6 billion
Harris hard-money advantage over Trump~$988 million
Harris campaign media spending$1.04 billion
Harris campaign voter contact spending$150 million
Media-to-contact ratio7:1
ResultLost
Our advantage: We don't have a consultant class eating the budget. Moscow is 26,000 people. $3,000 and 15 door-knockers outperform what the DNC couldn't do with billions. The absence of money forces the right tactics.
Mobilize, Don't Persuade
The DNC autopsy distinguishes between persuasion targets and mobilization targets. Moscow's conservative non-voters are mobilization targets — they already agree with us ideologically. They just need:
1. Awareness
That a city election is happening and what's at stake. Hearing Monitor + transparency site provide this year-round.
2. A Reason
A local issue that connects city hall decisions to their wallet. Property taxes doubled since 2008. $885K park stage. $112/month utility floor.
3. A Personal Ask
Someone they know knocking their door and asking them to vote. The DNC proved this is 8x more effective than any other method.
The Moscow Math
Factor
Number
Moscow registered voters
~16,127
Typical city election turnout
5,000-7,000
Registered Rs who skip local races
Est. 2,000-3,000
Votes needed to win a council seat
~3,400
Net gain needed from 2025 base
+1,423
Canvassers needed to cover conservative universe
10-15
Weeks to knock every target door
6-8
DNC door contact rate
17.1%
Expected real conversations
500-680
Sources
DNC Autopsy: "Build to Win. Build to Last." by Paul Rivera, released May 19, 2026. 192 pages. Annotated by DNC (Mia Ehrenberg).
Blueprint Post-Election: "Lost in Translation: Swing Voters' Misperceptions of Harris And Late Turn To Trump." 3,262-voter survey, Nov 6-7 2024.
